NYPD Shooting History Data Analysis

Author

Christopher Legarda

Published

August 27, 2025

Introduction

In the past five years, gun violence has remained a major concern for New Yorkers. Surveys consistently show that the vast majority of residents consider crime to be a very or somewhat serious issue, with many expressing skepticism about progress in reducing gun violence. At the same time, others note that overall crime rates have been trending downward, with some arguing that New York City feels safer than in previous years.

Amid this debate, public agencies continue to prioritize transparency, accountability, and data-driven decision-making. One area where this approach is especially valuable is in crime reporting and prevention.

This report analyzes NYPD shooting incident data to uncover trends, patterns, and factors that shape the distribution of gun violence. Specifically, the analysis focuses on data from 2020 through 2024, with the objectives of identifying geographic hotspots, temporal patterns, and demographic trends.

The dataset used in this analysis is publicly available through NYC Open Data, with further details provided in the Data section. The report will briefly describe the structure and types of data included, but it will not dive into technical details of data cleaning or coding. Instead, the focus is on presenting clear insights through exploratory data analysis (EDA), visualization, and statistical summaries.

The following sections detail the dataset, analytical approach, results, and key recommendations.

About the Data

This analysis uses the NYPD Shooting Incident Data – Historic, which is publicly available through NYC Open Data. The dataset contains detailed records of shooting incidents reported in New York City. For this report, the focus is on the years 2020 through 2024.

At the time of import, the dataset included 29,744 records (rows) and 21 columns (variables). After preparing and cleaning the data (e.g., converting dates into usable formats, handling missing values, and standardizing variable types), the final dataset contained 29,738 records. The cleaning process was carried out in code and is not covered in this report, since the intended audience is non-technical.

Data Structure

Each row in the dataset represents a single shooting incident. The key information captured includes:

  • Incident details
    • INCIDENT_KEY: Unique identifier for each incident
    • OCCUR_DATE and OCCUR_TIME: Date and time of the incident
    • BORO and PRECINCT: Location by borough and police precinct
    • JURISDICTION_CODE: Indicates whether the incident fell under NYPD (Patrol, Transit, Housing) or non-NYPD jurisdiction
  • Participants
    • PERP_AGE_GROUP, PERP_SEX, PERP_RACE: Age group, sex, and race of the perpetrator
    • VIC_AGE_GROUP, VIC_SEX, VIC_RACE: Age group, sex, and race of the victim
  • Incident outcomes
    • STATISTICAL_MURDER_FLAG: Indicates if the shooting resulted in a death
  • Location details
    • LOCATION_DESC: Description of where the incident occurred
    • X_COORD_CD, Y_COORD_CD, Latitude, Longitude, Lon_Lat: Geographic coordinates of the incident

Notes on Data Use

  • The dataset includes both categorical information (e.g., borough, sex, race, age group) and numeric/geographic information (e.g., coordinates, dates, times).
  • While the raw dataset contained some missing or inconsistent values, these were addressed during data preparation. The details of this process are available in the underlying code, but are not presented in this report.
  • The goal of this section is to provide an overview of what the data contains, rather than the technical steps of cleaning.
Table 1: Sample of NYPD Shooting Incident Data
INCIDENT_KEY OCCUR_DATE OCCUR_TIME BORO LOC_OF_OCCUR_DESC PRECINCT JURISDICTION_CODE LOC_CLASSFCTN_DESC LOCATION_DESC STATISTICAL_MURDER_FLAG PERP_AGE_GROUP PERP_SEX PERP_RACE VIC_AGE_GROUP VIC_SEX VIC_RACE X_COORD_CD Y_COORD_CD Latitude Longitude Lon_Lat YEAR HOUR
231974218 2021-08-09 00:00:00 01:06:00 Bronx Unknown 40 NYPD Patrol Unknown Unknown False Unknown Unknown Unknown 18-24 Male Black 1006343.000000 234270.000000 40.809673 -73.920193 POINT (-73.92019278899994 40.80967347200004) 2021 1
177934247 2018-04-07 00:00:00 19:48:00 Brooklyn Unknown 79 NYPD Patrol Unknown Unknown True 25-44 Male White Hispanic 25-44 Male Black 1000082.937500 189064.671875 40.685610 -73.942913 POINT (-73.94291302299996 40.685609672000055) 2018 19
255028563 2022-12-02 00:00:00 22:57:00 Bronx Outside 47 NYPD Patrol Street Grocery/Bodega False Unknown Unknown Unknown 25-44 Male Black 1020691.000000 257125.000000 40.872349 -73.868233 POINT (-73.868233 40.872349) 2022 22
25384540 2006-11-19 00:00:00 01:50:00 Brooklyn Unknown 66 NYPD Patrol Unknown Pvt House True Unknown Unknown Unknown 18-24 Male Black 985107.312500 173349.796875 40.642490 -73.996912 POINT (-73.99691224999998 40.642489932000046) 2006 1
72616285 2010-05-09 00:00:00 01:58:00 Bronx Unknown 46 NYPD Patrol Unknown Multi Dwell - Apt Build True 25-44 Male Black <18 Female Black 1009853.500000 247502.562500 40.845984 -73.907461 POINT (-73.90746098599993 40.84598358900007) 2010 1
85875439 2012-07-22 00:00:00 21:35:00 Bronx Unknown 42 NYPD Housing Unknown Multi Dwell - Public Hous False 18-24 Male Black 18-24 Male Black 1011046.687500 239814.234375 40.824878 -73.903179 POINT (-73.90317908399999 40.82487781900005) 2012 21
79780323 2011-07-12 00:00:00 22:26:00 Brooklyn Unknown 71 NYPD Patrol Unknown Unknown True Unknown Unknown Unknown 25-44 Male Black 995125.687500 178185.546875 40.655756 -73.960805 POINT (-73.96080480099994 40.65575638400003) 2011 22
85744504 2012-07-14 00:00:00 23:45:00 Brooklyn Unknown 69 NYPD Housing Unknown Multi Dwell - Public Hous False Unknown Unknown Unknown 25-44 Male White Hispanic 1013655.250000 177160.609375 40.652901 -73.894028 POINT (-73.89402764099998 40.652901014000065) 2012 23
142324890 2015-04-21 00:00:00 15:36:00 Brooklyn Unknown 75 NYPD Patrol Unknown Multi Dwell - Apt Build False 25-44 Male Black 25-44 Male Black 1012960.062500 182221.609375 40.666795 -73.896511 POINT (-73.89651148199994 40.66679461900003) 2015 15
152868707 2016-05-07 00:00:00 15:23:00 Brooklyn Unknown 69 NYPD Patrol Unknown Unknown False 18-24 Male Black 18-24 Male Black 1011467.000000 172461.000000 40.640009 -73.901933 POINT (-73.90193284499998 40.64000860200008) 2016 15

Geographic Analysis

Figure 1:

This chart breaks down total shootings by borough from 2020 through 2024.

  • The Bronx showed a small increase in 2024, rising to 458 incidents, while Manhattan also ticked upward to 215 incidents.
  • In contrast, Brooklyn (338 incidents) and Queens (155 incidents) followed steady downward trends.
  • Staten Island remained the lowest and relatively stable, with a small decline in 2024.

Takeaway: Most boroughs are seeing long-term declines, but localized increases in the Bronx and Manhattan suggest areas where targeted interventions are most needed.

Figure 2:

Table 2: Top 10 Precincts by Shooting Incidents — 2024
Police Precinct Borough Number of Incidents % of Citywide Shootings Cumulative % of Shootings
44 Bronx 83 7.0% 7.0%
46 Bronx 72 6.1% 13.1%
73 Brooklyn 61 5.2% 18.3%
40 Bronx 55 4.7% 23.0%
75 Brooklyn 52 4.4% 27.4%
42 Bronx 46 3.9% 31.3%
47 Bronx 42 3.6% 34.9%
52 Bronx 41 3.5% 38.4%
48 Bronx 38 3.2% 41.6%
43 Bronx 35 3.0% 44.6%

This table lists the 10 police precincts with the highest number of shooting incidents in 2024.

  • The 44th Precinct (Bronx) recorded the most, with 83 shootings (7.0% of citywide total).
  • The 46th Precinct (Bronx) ranked second, with 72 incidents (6.1%).
  • Together, just these two precincts accounted for 13.1% of all shootings in 2024.
  • Across the list, 7 of the 10 precincts are in the Bronx, underscoring its concentration of incidents.
  • Collectively, the top 10 precincts made up nearly 45% of citywide shootings in 2024.

Takeaway: Gun violence is highly concentrated, with the Bronx dominating the top precincts and nearly half of all 2024 incidents coming from only 10 areas.

Figure 3:

Make this Notebook Trusted to load map: File -> Trust Notebook

About this Map (How to Read & Use It)

This interactive map shows locations of NYPD shooting incidents for each year from 2020 to 2024. For each year, the map highlights the Top 10 police precincts with the most incidents that year.

What the colors mean - Each color represents a different precinct (within the year you’ve selected). - Points show where incidents occurred within those precincts.

How to use the map 1. Switch years: Use the layers box in the top-right to toggle a year on or off
(e.g., “2024 • Top 10 precincts”). Only one or multiple years can be shown at once. 2. Zoom & pan: Use the + / − buttons or your mouse/touchpad to zoom in and drag to move around the city. 3. See details:
- Hover over a point to see a quick summary (precinct, borough, date, and whether it resulted in death).
- Click a point to open a small popup with the same information. 4. Clusters: When zoomed out, nearby points are grouped together for readability.
- Zoom in to separate them and see individual incidents.
- At close zoom levels, points will “uncluster” automatically.

What you can learn at a glance - Where shootings concentrate within the Top 10 precincts in a given year.
- How patterns shift across years by toggling different year layers.
- Context for potential hot spots (e.g., clusters of points within specific neighborhoods/precincts).

Notes - This map focuses on the Top 10 precincts per year (not all precincts) so you can quickly see where incidents are most concentrated. - Data comes from NYPD Shooting Incident Data – Historic (NYC Open Data).

Temporal Analysis

Figure 1:

This chart shows monthly shooting incidents for each year between 2020 and 2024.

  • 2020–2022: Shootings peaked in the summer months (June–August), often exceeding 200 incidents.
  • 2023–2024: Summer spikes became smaller, staying below 200 incidents, and monthly trends appeared more stable.
  • In 2024, incidents stayed fairly steady throughout the year, with only a dip in August and a rebound in September.

Takeaway: Shootings were strongly seasonal in earlier years, but in recent years the summer spikes have weakened, suggesting an overall stabilization of monthly patterns.

Figure 2:

This chart shows how shootings are distributed by time of day for each year between 2020 and 2024.

  • The pattern across all years forms a U-shape, with peaks during late-night and evening hours.
  • Early mornings consistently recorded the fewest incidents.
  • In 2020–2022, late-night and evening peaks often exceeded 100 incidents.
  • In 2023–2024, these peaks dropped below 100, except for a late-night spike in 2023.

Takeaway: Shootings remain concentrated at night, but overall frequency at peak hours has decreased since 2023.

Demographic Analysis

Figure 1:

This chart compares the age groups of perpetrators and victims in shootings from 2020 through 2024.

  • Perpetrators: The largest category is consistently “Unknown”, followed by ages 25–44.
  • Victims: Most are aged 25–44, followed by 18–24.
  • Victims recorded as “Unknown” are extremely rare, never more than a handful of cases in any year.

Takeaway: Young to middle-aged adults (18–44) are the most impacted as victims, while a large portion of perpetrator ages remain unrecorded.

Figure 2:

This chart compares the sex of perpetrators and victims in shootings between 2020 and 2024.

  • Perpetrators: In 2020–2021, most were recorded as Unknown, but by 2022–2024, males accounted for nearly 60%, overtaking the Unknown category. Females consistently stayed under 2%.
  • Victims: The vast majority are male (over 80%), with females representing 10–12% across all years. Unknown victims are negligible, appearing only once in 2023.

Takeaway: Victims are overwhelmingly male, while perpetrator records improved after 2021, with more identified as male rather than left as unknown.

Figure 3:

This chart compares perpetrators and victims in shootings by race/ethnicity from 2020 to 2024.

  • Perpetrators: The largest categories shift between Unknown and Black, depending on the year. In 2022, Black perpetrators overtook Unknown. White Hispanic and Black Hispanic follow, while White and Asian/Pacific Islander are small minorities.
  • Victims: Black individuals dominate, consistently making up 65–72% of victims. White Hispanic victims are the second-largest group, followed by Black Hispanic and White victims. Asian/Pacific Islander and American Indian/Alaskan Native victims appear in very small proportions.

Takeaway: Victim demographics are consistent, with Black individuals disproportionately affected, while perpetrator data is less stable due to many cases recorded as “Unknown.”

Murder Flag Analysis:

Figure 1:

This chart shows the percentage of shootings that resulted in a victim’s death between 2020 and 2024.

  • Fatal shootings made up roughly 19–21% of all incidents each year.
  • The highest level occurred in 2021 (21.3%), while the lowest was in 2020 (18.8%).

Takeaway: The percentage of shootings that end in death has remained relatively stable, even as overall incident counts have declined.

Conclusion

This analysis of NYPD shooting incident data from 2020 to 2024 shows that gun violence in New York City has declined steadily since its peak in 2021. While the city recorded over 2,000 shootings in 2021, incidents dropped to just over 1,100 by 2024, reflecting meaningful progress.

The data also highlights that gun violence is not evenly distributed. Shootings are concentrated in a small number of precincts, particularly in the Bronx and parts of Manhattan, while other boroughs such as Brooklyn and Queens have shown consistent declines. Temporal patterns indicate that shootings remain most common during nighttime and summer months, though these peaks have weakened in recent years.

Demographic trends reveal that young to middle-aged Black males are disproportionately impacted as victims, while gaps in perpetrator data (notably large “Unknown” categories) limit deeper analysis. The proportion of shootings that result in death has remained relatively stable at around 19–21%, suggesting that while the number of incidents has fallen, their lethality has not significantly changed.

Recommendations

  • Target geographic hotspots: Focus prevention and intervention strategies in the Bronx and Manhattan precincts that consistently rank highest for shooting incidents.
  • Address peak times: Maintain heightened prevention efforts during nighttime hours and summer months, when shootings are most frequent.
  • Improve data quality: Strengthen NYPD data collection on perpetrators, particularly age and sex, to reduce the reliance on “Unknown” categories and improve future analysis.
  • Sustain monitoring: Continue tracking trends annually to ensure recent declines are maintained and to quickly identify any emerging patterns.
  • Community-focused strategies: Pair enforcement with community programs addressing root causes of violence in the hardest-hit neighborhoods.